(#108) Strategic business predictions for 2025
Make America Build Again (MABA) and AI Agentic begins now
One year ago I had 13 business predictions and now we can draw the line:
8 ✅
2 🟨
3 ❌
This year I come with 14 predictions. Take your time to read them one by one:
1. AI Agents
The proliferation of AI agents will mark a new chapter in human-computer interaction, shifting from passive tools to proactive collaborators. These agents, trained to understand context and deliver actionable insights, will redefine productivity by autonomously completing tasks, from email management to advanced problem-solving. Their adoption in consumer and enterprise applications will democratize access to AI, positioning them as the next platform after mobile and cloud.
2. AGI in Math and Software
The emergence of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) in math and software engineering will revolutionize problem-solving. Complex computations, proofs, and code generation tasks that currently take weeks or months will be solved in hours. This leap will enable breakthroughs in cryptography, algorithm design, and optimization problems, creating ripple effects across industries, from finance to logistics. Math will be the first field to be cracked because everything happens in a symbolic space. Read my essay “AI – a Maximalist Vision” for in-depth impact.
3. NVIDIA will lead the Magnificent 7
As the backbone of AI infrastructure, NVIDIA will solidify its position as the leader among the Magnificent 7 tech giants. Its GPUs are the gold standard for AI model training and deployment, and its CUDA ecosystem ensures loyalty among developers. With investments in software platforms like Omniverse and dominance in edge AI, NVIDIA will not just ride the AI wave—it will define it.
4. YouTube will be the most used platform by the youth
YouTube’s blend of short-form content (via Shorts), long-form engagement, and its robust monetization ecosystem will make it the world’s most-used platform in 2025. Its dominance in educational and “how-to” content, combined with live streaming and integrations with AI-generated content, will keep it irreplaceable in creators’ and users’ lives alike. YouTube will remain a critical pillar of Alphabet’s strategy and at some point wil be listed separately to the stock exchange.
New Consumer revealed two key insights:
a. People watch more YouTube vs Netflix
b. People feel twice smarter watching YouTube vs. Netflix
5. Amazon will be the stock of the year
Amazon’s combination of e-commerce dominance, AWS growth, and its move into generative AI services will make it the stock of 2025. New ventures like Just Walk Out technology and the integration of AI to optimize supply chains and customer experiences will catalyze growth. Meanwhile, its relentless focus on Prime will solidify consumer loyalty and boost profitability. The company has 3 business lines generating more than $100 bn each.
6. Google is best positioned to deliver on AI
With its deep expertise in foundational AI models and integration across Search, Cloud, and Workspace, Google is primed to lead the AI era, better than OpenAI because it has distribution, among others. Its access to billions of users, paired with its expansive data set, ensures that it can iterate at scale. Expect breakthroughs in multimodal AI applications and innovations in productivity, advertising, and other bets.
7. Defense Tech will be a star in 2025
Geopolitical instability and rising defense budgets will propel companies like Palantir, Anduril, and SpaceX into the spotlight. These firms will redefine warfare and security, leveraging AI, drones, and satellite intelligence to deliver asymmetric advantages. Governments will increasingly turn to agile tech-driven defense contractors over traditional aerospace giants, signaling a paradigm shift in defense procurement.
8. Influencers are becoming brands
The rise of the “influencer-as-a-brand” model will accelerate in 2025 as creators launch proprietary products and services, moving beyond sponsorship deals. From skincare lines to financial services, influencers will leverage their loyal followings to build scalable businesses. Platforms like Shopify and Substack will play key roles in enabling this trend, while traditional brands will struggle to compete for attention.
9. Robots will be used to build…robots
The robotics industry will achieve a flywheel effect as robots begin manufacturing other robots, reducing costs and increasing scalability. Advances in precision assembly, powered by AI, will make this a reality in industries like electronics, automotive, and even healthcare. This innovation will catalyze exponential growth in robotics adoption and set the stage for a self-sustaining industrial revolution. This means a potential multiple-trillion market opportunity and “blue-collar” disruption.
10. Make America Build Again (MABA)
A renewed focus on domestic manufacturing and infrastructure will take center stage in the U.S. policy agenda, all in line with MAGA policies: (a) build in the USA and (b) de-risking from China. Backed by public-private partnerships and reshoring incentives, sectors like semiconductors, clean energy, and construction will thrive. This movement will aim to reduce reliance on foreign supply chains, fostering economic resilience and creating a new golden age of American industrial innovation, all backed by abundant (cheap) energy.
11. Vertical Integrators
2025 will favor vertical integrators - companies that own the entire stack from production to distribution. Apple’s success with silicon and Tesla’s battery, software, and supply chain integration are leading examples. The trend will expand to other industries, such as healthcare, where companies like Amazon and CVS aim to control everything from telemedicine to pharmacies.
12. More “Boeings” Will Happen
Corporate failures like Boeing’s missteps with the 737 MAX will increasingly serve as cautionary tales for large companies failing to prioritize quality and innovation (ie. vertical integration) over short-term profits (ie. horizontal integration). In a hyper-competitive and transparent world, mismanagement of key projects will lead to reputational and financial disaster, forcing companies to rethink governance and execution strategies.
13. Europe Pessimism - Mario Draghi Report
Mario Draghi’s warning about Europe’s declining competitiveness and inability to innovate will loom large in 2025. Persistent challenges, ranging from regulatory overreach to energy dependency, will hinder growth. The same message was transmitted by Emmanuel Macron during his speech at the Sorbonne. No change, no (cheap) energy, no jobs, no money.
14. Energy: Nuclear is back
Nuclear energy will experience a renaissance as governments and companies seek reliable, carbon-neutral solutions to meet climate goals amid huge demand from AI. Advances in small modular reactors (SMRs) and public sentiment shifts will position nuclear as a cornerstone of the clean energy mix. Expect major investments, policy changes, and new players emerging in this revitalized sector.
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