(#40) Disney's finally go-to-market strategy; Twitter's business model; AI is predicting your sickness
AI has created a new style of painting.
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I write here for the long term. Some of them become reality shortly after. That is the case with Twitter and Disney’s strategies laid out here in the last 10 months.
Onto the update:
Strategy
X, formerly known as Twitter, will go beyond the paywall
This is my thought from 15 November 2022:
“It’s been two weeks since Elon is in charge at Twitter and I just can’t keep up with all the ongoing mess. Not necessarily an overall bad thing thou’…
Seeing the tweet below, I was wondering if Twitter should change its business model. After all, they are having now the 7th CEO and the same business model. I must admit that I started to ignore the overall performance of the company several years ago after seeing so many failures to move Twitter in the right direction.
So, here are my reasons why the company needs a new business model:
Most of their revenue comes from ads, more especially the channel they can’t control: brand advertising (direct response marketing). Now, how many people do you know that bought something from seeing an ad on Twitter?
Brand advertising is very sensitive to recessions and other external changes (e.g. Apple’s App Tracking Transparency) and this means pain; and a lot of paint (Snap is not that far away, btw)
Ad inventory – when large companies (i.e.. Unilever) decide to leave Facebook, the overall price of each ad will decrease, making it a competitive platform for SMEs and hence offsetting any large impact. (the advantage of long tails). This is not the case on Twitter, hence Elon’s message above
Tapping (e.g. Instagram) vs. Scrolling (Twitter) is much easier to monetize
Leisure vs. debating – people go to Twitter for information & debates. Why not capitalize on this?
Although a Super App won’t be possible in Europe/US
Twitter started in an era that favored text. Now it’s all about pictures and video and those who prefer text, who are a minority to be clear, will likely pay for it
The SuperApp will not materialize, but how about a SuperInfo App? Twitter is, after all, a place where you see news, opinions from analysis, memes, and so on. Their newsfeed is unparalleled when it comes to these
The Superpack of apps – studies show that most people use a limited number of apps on their phone: Fb, Instagram, LinkedIn, twitter, TikTok, and maybe 1-2 more. Every local/global event will push all people towards Twitter, not fb/Insta or LinkedIn; hence, even more reason to ask for money.
Building a community of developers around your company can be the key to future success, for this the company should offer something really exciting and that starts with changing the business model. LINK
Fast forward to 19 September 2023:
"Elon Musk said on Monday he's moving to require all users to pay a monthly fee to use his social media site X, previously called Twitter." LINK
My two cents: if X goes beyond the paywall the price will be $4,99 / month.
Disney finally has a strategy
On the 24th of August, I said “Disney can be the Apple of experiences”, presenting the chart below:
I said that because most of their focus was on TV (linear and D2C) and not too much on what really matters: Disney studios & parks. One month later it seems Disney realized this anomaly and went big on this. My only question is: Why did Bob Iger take so long to make this decision? LINK
Google’s Bard
So, now you can connect your Gmail, YouTube and more to Bard and the bot will help you just like Chat GPT, but it will be for business. Google’s response to Microsoft (and OpenAI) in this space was pretty fast and probably the end result might be better. Imagine adding other 3rd party apps that can help you be more productive and at the same time the bot becomes more personalized (ie. started). It will be a flywheel that will augment your productivity powers. LINK
Google’s Fitbit
Google has a new Fitbit app…after two years of redesign. Two main questions and some observations:
1/ Who waits 2 years to ship software?
2/ Google made an agreement with the European Commission on many crucial details of this acquisition, resulting in the end of two products with separate teams & co: Pixel and Fitbit. Lesson: some trade-offs are not worth it. New app, European Commission
Apple’s iPhone launch
Three ideas and a bonus:
1/ The new iPhone has received preliminary modest feedback from analysts and the overall event was seen as “boring”
2/ The stock went down -2% after the event
3/ …in the meantime, the waiting for the top model (iPhone Pro Max 14) has reached 6-7 weeks. Q.E.D.
Bonus! Nothing CEO reacts to iPhone 15 announcement. LINK, Nothing phone
Bonus! Steven Sinofsky, ex-OG at Microsoft, has a good article on Apple’s ‘Mother Nature’ video and the overall supply chain. LINK
Transition to EVs
We have discussed several times that transition to EVs means a totally new skill (ie. software) and a lot of money (e.g. that’s why they are called “gigafactories”).
The WSJ: “Ford Hires New CMO Away From Toyota as It Pivots Toward Electric Vehicles”.
1/ At this point, these incumbents are far behind Tesla, BYD, and other producers. LINK
2/ Bonus! EU is looking into the Chinese subsidies received by the local automakers. LINK
3/ In the meantime, Chinese companies are choosing Hungary to open new plants. LINK
Microsoft was planning some interesting acquisitions. TikTok, Nintendo
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Artificial Intelligence
AI vs. predicting sickness
Not only that current AI models develop new medicines or help identify different types of diseases but they can also predict who gets sick. Google’s Deep Mind will know you better than your doctor. LINK
The CEO’s guide to generative AI from IMB. LINK
What’s the future of generative AI? An early view in 15 charts. LINK
Data
Tesla battery longevity shows that colder climates are better for degradation than hotter climates long-term. LINK
Great breakdown for Garmin, today a $ 20 bn company. LINK
Fixing the housing problems is not rocket science:
US Electric vehicle sales reach breakthrough pace. LINK
Outside Interest
AI has created a new style of painting. LINK
Making superpremium coffee at home. LINK
China wants to ban clothes that 'hurt nation's feelings'. LINK
The CIA has a YouTube campaign on recruiting spies…in Russia. LINK
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