(#51) IPOs in 2024; Threads is coming to the EU; Asset tokenisation on the rise; and magicians are less prone to mental illness
Anduril is the defense tech start-up that has developed products for a new type of war: based on drones, reusable rockets, and AI
Dear friend,
Welcome to my latest edition, where I delve into the exciting world of Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) set for 2024. This year promises to be a landmark in the financial markets, showcasing a diverse array of companies ready to make their grand debut on the public stage. From tech giants to innovative startups, 2024 is shaping up to be a year that could redefine industry standards and investment strategies.
Join me as I explore the intricacies of these potential market listings, from the well-established social media platform Reddit, celebrating 19 years of digital community building, to the innovative fintech solutions of Klarna, and the ever-evolving landscapes of StubHub and SeatGeek in the ticketing domain.
Whether you're an avid investor, a curious observer, or somewhere in between, this newsletter aims to equip you with insights and perspectives to navigate the 2024 IPO wave.
Onto the update:
Strategy
IPOs in 2024
I discussed in the last newsletter Shein’s advantages over the incumbents and how they are going to leverage that in the most expected IPO of 2024. Now, The Information reports that in 2024 there are expected to see IPOs from the following: Reddit (founded 19 years ago), Klarna (also 19 years old next year), ticketing giant StubHub (17 years old), car-rental marketplace Turo (15 years old), ticketing site SeatGeek (14 years old), online couponing app Ibotta (13 years old) and blue-collar software firm ServiceTitan (12 years old). LINK
Each has some challenges. Let’s take them one by one:
1/ Reddit (19 years old): Investors might expect a company that has a solid user base and has shown an ability to innovate and adapt. Challenges could include navigating content moderation issues and monetizing its user base without alienating them (ie. see X/Twitter).
2/ Klarna (19 years old): As a leader in the buy-now-pay-later sector, Klarna's IPO could be a significant event in the fintech industry. Investors might look for its growth potential in expanding markets and its strategies for managing credit risks and regulatory challenges, especially in a potentially tightening global credit environment (ie. high-interest rates)
3/ StubHub (17 years old): Being a major player in the ticketing industry, StubHub's IPO might be seen as a gauge of the health of the live events industry. Investors will assess its ability to compete with other ticketing platforms and its strategies for dealing with issues like fraud and market fluctuations.
4/ Turo (15 years old): Turo's position as a car-rental marketplace puts it at the intersection of the sharing economy and the automotive industry. Investors might look at its scalability, the impact of changing automotive trends like electric vehicles, and its strategies to compete against traditional rental companies and other sharing-economy models.
5/ SeatGeek (14 years old): Similar to StubHub, SeatGeek's performance will be closely watched as an indicator of the live event and ticketing market. Investors may be interested in its technological edge, customer experience, and partnership strategies.
6/ Ibotta (13 years old): As an online couponing app, Ibotta's IPO could reflect the growing trend of digital marketing and e-commerce. Potential investors might assess its user engagement strategies, partnerships with retailers, and data analytics capabilities.
7/ ServiceTitan (12 years old): Specializing in software for blue-collar industries, ServiceTitan's IPO might attract investors interested in digital solutions for traditionally less digitized sectors. The focus could be on its market penetration, scalability, and the adaptability of its software solutions to different industries.
Ads exodus from X (ex-Twitter)
From the Wall Street Journal:
“Walmart stops Ads on X, joining the advertising exit. Retailer says its halt isn’t a boycott, but due to poor performance”.
Now, those of you who follow this newsletter know by now that (1) Twitter should have gone paywall and that (2) brand advertising is not suitable for a text-based social platform. WSJ, Business model
Threads launching in the EU
Speaking of text-based platforms, Threads (by Instagram) is launching in the EU six months later than the rest of the world. There are 5 takeaways:
1/ Meta stopped the (potential) growth of X (ex-Twitter) with this move
2/ We will see a more divided landscape in this field: Blue Sky, Mastodon, Threads, and many more
3/ There was this joke:
Launch now on iOS and six months later on Android
Now, launch it everywhere in the world and six months later in the EU
4/ Meta reportedly hired 1,000 people to tackle the regulatory EU concerts. Well, a clear example is that regulation helps the incumbents. Innovation exists in the EU start-up ecosystem but is insignificant. LINK
5/ Threads bring something new to the table. See their post. LINK
Succession at Apple
Tim Cook (63 years old) announced that there is a clear path of succession at Apple. I estimate that he will be at the helm of the company for another 4-5 years, just in time for Vision Pro to take off. His legacy might depend on this success. LINK
Asset tokenization on the rise
I have mentioned several times in this newsletter that blockchain technology can help asset tokenization, which has multiple advantages.
1/ Improved liquidity
2/ Lower transaction costs
3/ Increased accessibility/
4/ Enhanced transparency and security
5/ Fractional ownership
It seems now that this process is starting to make a difference. LINK
Artificial Intelligence
The era of Generative AI
How generative AI will change how you use the web, from search to shopping. LINK
The OpenAI soap-opera
The Verge made an interview with Sam Altman this week. LINK
Regardless of what Sam mentioned, there are two things to look forward to in 2024:
1/ The actual (weird) governance structure of Open AI
2/ Internal problems regarding development and direction will arise again, now that they have a product called Q*, which some of those who work on it say achieved AGI. Interview, Company structure, Q*
Technical Report: Large Language Models can strategically deceive their users when put under pressure. Here is the abstract:
“We demonstrate a situation in which Large Language Models, trained to be helpful, harmless, and honest, can display misaligned behavior and strategically deceive their users about this behavior without being instructed to do so. Concretely, we deploy GPT-4 as an agent in a realistic, simulated environment, where it assumes the role of an autonomous stock trading agent. Within this environment, the model obtains an insider tip about a lucrative stock trade and acts upon it despite knowing that insider trading is disapproved of by company management. When reporting to its manager, the model consistently hides the genuine reasons behind its trading decision. We perform a brief investigation of how this behavior varies under changes to the setting, such as removing model access to a reasoning scratchpad, attempting to prevent the misaligned behavior by changing system instructions, changing the amount of pressure the model is under, varying the perceived risk of getting caught, and making other simple changes to the environment. To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of Large Language Models trained to be helpful, harmless, and honest, strategically deceiving their users in a realistic situation without direct instructions or training for deception." LINK
Building a GenAI solution at LEGO. LINK
Amazon aims to provide free AI skills training to 2 million people by 2025. Example of courses:
Courses for business and non-technical audiences
Generative AI Learning Plan for Decision Makers
Introduction to Amazon CodeWhisperer. LINK
Things Happen
Inside an Apple lab that makes custom chips for iPhone and Mac. LINK
The weird and secretive world of crisp flavors. LINK
Will cars soon be developed in the metaverse? A blog post from Porsche. LINK
Pentagon's AI initiatives accelerate hard decisions on lethal autonomous weapons. LINK
Anduril is the defense tech start-up that has developed products for a new type of war: based on drones, reusable rockets, and AI. LINK
Data
Atomico’s annual presentation “State of European Tech”. LINK
The State of Fashion 2024: Finding pockets of growth as uncertainty reigns, by McKinsey. LINK
Pew Research Center survey on Social media and news. LINK
Outside interest
Gaming
GTA 6: The game trailer was unveiled on December 5th. Just a reminder that GTA 5 made over $6 bn in revenues and probably the newer version will surpass it. LINK
A cool webcam. LINK
Ubercool: EP–133 K.O. II is a powerful sampler, sequence, and composer. LINK
Turbo Pascal turns 40. LINK
Study: Magicians are less prone to mental illness. LINK
Thanks for being a subscriber, and have a great week!
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