(#57) Rabbit r1 at CES; OpenAI's aggregation dream; on Apple's discounts; "Social media is dead" by Snapchat's Evan Spiegel
Coinbase will be the most impacted by Bitcoin ETFs approval
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Strategy
On Vision Pro's latest developments
1/ Apple arranged a 25-minute presentation. From Bloomberg:
“Users will be directed to the photos app to view still images that are similar to the ones preloaded on Apple’s other devices in retail stores. That’s followed by examples of panorama shots.
Then the demo starts to get more interesting. The customer sees 3D images that Apple calls spatial photos (in this case, of a kid hitting a piñata) and spatial video (footage of a birthday party).
The next part of the demo shows how to use the device as a computer or iPad replacement. It explains how to position multiple app windows in space and scroll through webpages in the Safari browser.
Customers are then shown 3D and immersive movies, including clips of wild animals, the ocean, and sports. There is also a compelling scene that makes users feel as if they’re on a tightrope.
Holly guacamole, what a departure from “just works” to “give at 25+ minutes to show you have it works”. Concerning. LINK
2/ This week Apple invited some influencers and journalists to try the device. While the feedback is still overall positive, it seems that the device is…really heavy. WSJ, The Verge, MKBHD
Rabbit r1
At CES 2024 there was only one subject: AI on every device possible.
What stood out from the crowd was the R1 innovative device trained on GUIs to make your life simpler.
1/ What I like: It’s simple, it has a screen, a wheel, a camera, speakers and a side button
2/ What I ponder on:
$199 for the device and no subscription? Every request goes to the cloud, so how are they going to pay this without a subscription?
Response time is 10x faster vs. Chat GPT
Why is this not an app on an iPhone? The action button is there already.
Key takeaways:
1/ Soon each smartphone will be able to run locally an LLM, reducing many of the (inference) costs. Looking forward to having Siri do it.
2/ Rabbit r1 will fail, just like Humane AI Pin. LINK
3/ I’m so curious about what LoveFrom is building with OpenAI. LINK
OpenAI’s dream: becoming an aggregator
From Bloomberg:
“OpenAI has launched an online store where people can share customized versions of the company’s popular ChatGPT chatbot, after initially delaying the rollout because of leadership upheaval last year. The new store, which rolled out Wednesday to paid ChatGPT users, will corral the chatbots that users create for a variety of tasks, for example a version of ChatGPT that can teach math to a child or come up with colorful cocktail recipes.The product, called the GPT Store, will include chatbots that users have chosen to share publicly. It will eventually introduce ways for people to make money from their creations — much as they might through the app stores of Apple Inc. or Alphabet Inc.’s Google. Similar to those app stores, OpenAI’s GPT Store will let users see the most popular and trending chatbots on a leaderboard and search for them by category. In a blog post announcing the rollout, OpenAI said that people have made 3 million custom chatbots thus far, though it was not clear how many were available through its store at launch.”
Some takeaways:
1/ Building GPTs is much easier than building apps (for an App Store, for example)
2/ When you have 3 million GPTs to reach their customers you need discovery (ie. ads)
3/ We will have at least 20 GPTs in our lives: from travel to work to hobbies, they will be everywhere and on most devices. LINK
“Social media is dead”
We’ve heard it so many times, but now it comes from Evan Spiegel (Snapchat’s founder).
In his latest letter to his colleagues (employees) he addresses the year to come and I do recommend reading the entire letter. Now, coming back to the main message I have some takes:
1/ Yes, on average social media networks fully live 5 years, the rest is a slow decline (but cash-rich)
2/ Most of the time users (mostly teens) spend time engaging videos (ie. TikTok, reels, shorts, etc) from people they don’t know. The “social” part of social media has been dead since the rise of influencers (ie. Kim Kardashian)
3/ Social media is making most people feel bad
4/ Social media’s future is in pure and genuine connection. So, for that, you will need a space where to start: a messaging channel.
That’s why, Snapchat’s competition is Whatsapp and Discord, not Instagram. LINK
On pricing
This past 7 days two key news came out of China:
1/ Tesla is cutting prices. LINK
2/ Apple is offering a rare discount on their iPhone 15 models. LINK
Offering discounts is the worst possible solution you might have. I understand that (1) competition is fierce in China now with Huawei’s new phones, (2) China brings 20% of Apple’s total revenue, and (3) China’s economy is in a bad situation, BUT offering discounts to a fresh product shows despair.
There are other solutions to discounts and each company should go to its value proposition and say it loudly.
Appls vs. Microsoft
In my 2024 business predictions (written in last December!), I foresaw Microsoft surpassing Apple in market capitalization, and now, just three weeks later, it has indeed become a reality. (see pic below)
While it remains uncertain if this trend will persist throughout the year, several factors contribute to Microsoft's current market dominance, such as its robust cloud services, strategic acquisitions, and strong performance in the technology sector (hint! AI in everything). Exciting developments ahead! FT, Business Predictions 2024
Here’s Steve Jobs email to all Apple employees when Apple surpassed Microsoft in 2010:
on DEI (Diversity - Equity and Inclusion)
1/ DEI must DIE. Palladium, Tablet, The New York Times
2/ A podcast on the crisis in Higher Education, by Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz. Skip to 1:11:29. LINK
3/ Elon Musk. LINK
4/ Bill Ackman. LINK
Artificial Intelligence
Are you planning to talk more and more with an AI? Here are 6 types of conversations with LLMs. LINK
$50 bn later at META
Well, not surprisingly, Mark Zuckerberg pivots from Metaverse to AI. Like everybody else. From Bloomberg:
“Unlike Microsoft, OpenAI and Google, Meta doesn’t need to sell its AI tools for money. Instead, the company benefits most from using AI to get people to stay on its apps longer. Meta’s strategy is to keep its AI models free and then gain an advantage by building products and services on top of them. If cloud computing services charge their own customers to access Llama, Meta will take a cut.” (LINK)
ChatGPT pricing plans for small teams
OpenAI has launched ChatGPT Team, a subscription plan tailored for smaller, self-service-oriented teams looking to leverage the capabilities of its AI-driven chatbot. Priced at $30 per user per month or $25 per user per month for annual billing, ChatGPT Team accommodates teams of up to 149 members, offering a dedicated workspace and administrative tools. Subscribers gain access to OpenAI's latest models, such as GPT-4 for text generation and DALL-E 3 for image creation, along with features enabling ChatGPT to analyze, edit, and extract information from uploaded files. Team members can also construct and share GPTs, custom applications based on OpenAI's text-generating AI models, without the need for coding expertise. OpenAI emphasizes ongoing benefits, including undisclosed new features, and assures users that models will not be trained on team data or conversations.
While priced higher than the individual premium plan, ChatGPT Plus, which costs $20 per month, ChatGPT Team offers a more cost-effective solution compared to ChatGPT Enterprise. The latter, designed for larger teams with a minimum of 150 users and a 12-month contract, is priced at up to $60 per user per month. This new subscription plan caters to the collaborative needs of smaller teams, providing advanced AI capabilities at a competitive rate. LINK
Things Happen
L'Oréal's digital transformation in the beauty tech revolution adds GenAI, according to their presentation at…CES 2024. LINK
The new Notion calendar. LINK
What kept the USA alive in 2024: from oil drillers to chip makers. LINK
Byrne Hobart on how hedge funds work. LINK
Data
From Quartz:
“IDC’s numbers show that Apple shipped nearly 235 million units last year, to Samsung’s 227 million”. Well, this benchmark put things in perspective, because most of the iPhones sold are in the PRO and most of the Samsungs sold are non-Pro, hence the market valuation for each company (Apple = 8x Samsung). LINK
Question: When Samsung will start producing cars? (ie. EVS)
Retail media is a $100bn industry (and growing double digits)
Colin Lewis created a 40-page doc addressing the following topics:
1/ What is Retail Media Today?
2/ Retail Media as the Trojan Horse for Marketing Transformation
3/ Retail Media Reckoning
4/ Measurement, Standardisation and ROI
5/ Instore: Coming to a Store Near You
6/ The Cambrian Explosion
7/ The Big Kahuna. LINK
Autonomous driving
… is close…and will ever be close. LINK
Football revenue in Europe. LINK
Outside interest
Bitcoin ETFs
So, we have the SEC approval for Bitcoin ETFs. Some take on that:
1/ From the logical point of view Bitcoin’s value is ZERO, as demonstrated by Nassim Nchikoas Taleb. LINK
2/ …but, the financial system runs on trust, so that’s why we have Bitcoin ETFs. LINK
3/ It is clear now that most people find blockchain too complicated and prefer to buy from a broker, that is, the old way of buying stocks.
4/ Who is the most impacted? I’d say Coinbase (although they have most of the ETFs). Most of their money came from crypto transactions, but with competition, prices will go down (as always), hence their valuation too.
Lockheed Martin X-59 Quesst - marketed as “built for quiet supersonic speed” it seems it will bring supersonic commercial flights back. Cool. LINK
How to make your office perfect, by Simon Kuper.
on happiness
Individuals residing in regions with a historical emphasis on rice cultivation exhibit lower levels of happiness and engage in more frequent social comparisons than those dwelling in areas with a historical focus on wheat farming. LINK
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