(#58) More on Vision Pro; Google Circles; TikTok Search; Audi is dead; Meta's new focus;
An open secret: Apple is working around the clock on AI for its devices and services
Knowledge Partner: EY
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Strategy
Vision Pro launch
The preorders have begun for the Vision Pro. According to early submissions, the company will probably sell around 500,000 devices this year, according to Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo.
My initial thought has been that Vision Pro will be a mix of usage: productivity, games, and media. Now, Om Malik in an interview with Ben Thompson argues that:
1/ You have to be a mobile native to appreciate something like this (= maybe Gen Z, born between 1995 and 2010, can claim to be)
2/ It’s a consumption device, not productivity
Here is his full quote:
“But the thing is you actually have to be mobile-native to actually appreciate something like this. So if you’ve grown up watching a 75-inch screen television, you probably would not really appreciate it as much. But if you are like me who’s been watching iPad for ten-plus years as my main video consumption device, this is the obvious next step. If you live in Asia, like you live in Taiwan, people don’t have big homes, they don’t have 85-inch screen televisions. Plus, you have six, seven, eight people living in the same house, they don’t get screen time to watch things so they watch everything on their phone. I think you see that behavior and you see this is going to be the iPod”.
Now, three takes on this quote:
1/ Most people in Asia will not be able to afford something like this
2/ …even if the price will go down to $1,000
3/…so the product is clearly for rich markets
I guess we’ll have to wait and see the first really serious reviews. Sales. Interview
Circle (or highlight or scribble) to Search - by Google
Hardware differentiation will never be Google’s strong point, but the software will. Here are some key ideas from their announcement:
1/ Circle to Search is a novel feature for Android phones allowing users to search anything on their device using simple gestures like circling, highlighting, scribbling, or tapping, without needing to switch apps.
2/ User-friendly interaction. It enables more intuitive interaction with the phone by letting users long press the home button or navigation bar to activate the feature, then use gestures to select items of interest directly on the screen for more information.
3/ Multisearch and AI integration. The feature incorporates multisearch, combining text and image searches, along with AI-powered upgrades to facilitate a deeper understanding of concepts, ideas, or topics by aggregating information from across the web.
4/ Practical use cases:.Circle to Search is useful in various scenarios like identifying untagged items in videos, understanding popular trends (e.g., Korean corn dogs), or learning about new topics (e.g., 'thrift flipping') directly from the context of the content being viewed.
5/ The feature is set to launch on January 31 on select premium Android smartphones, including the Pixel 8, Pixel 8 Pro, and the new Samsung Galaxy S24 series, in all languages and locations where these devices are available.
Conclusion: nobody from iOS will switch to Android to have this feature. LINK
Meta’s new goal: Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)
Zuckerberg had a few days ago a short video on Meta’s next focus: AI, of course.
Some key messages:
Creating AGI.
FAIR & AI product teams merge.
Llama 3 (WIP, but still will be free)
Continue buying H100 GPUs from NVIDIA
Hints towards AI Hardware (probably, glasses)
It’s hard to back down on building the metaverse after you have wanted $50bn but now is great to add this new focus.
Also, a short reminder about how META makes its money 👇
Economics
Maybe the graph below should be in the Data category, but I put it here because deciding where to open a business and in which market to expand is crucial for survival. Three takeaways:
In 1991, the gap between China's per capita GDP and that of the United States stood at $38,341, and by 2021, it had widened to $46,067.
France and Germany’s GDP per capita widened vs. the USA
Romania should adapt and apply to what worked for the USA, not go on a downward spiral (ie. regulation & co)
Audi
How did you die? Slowly, and then suddenly. LINK
TikTok - the new Google
The Ad industry is getting fragmented too. In 2022 Amazon made $38bn of revenue with its ad business. It’s clear that you need both curation and discovery, so for that, you need to pay. Now, Adobe presents some key insights from searching on TikTok:
1/ Over 2 in 5 Americans use TikTok as a search engine.
2/ Nearly 1 in 10 Gen Zers are more likely to rely on TikTok than Google as a search engine.
3/ More than half of business owners (54%) use TikTok to promote their business, posting an average of 9 times per month.
4/ 1 in 4 small business owners use TikTok influencers for product sales or promotions. LINK
Sam Altman and chips
The hardest thing to build is the (computer) chips. Even TMSC and Samsung are delaying their fabs in the USA because they can’t find people to do it (hint! Once you close or externalize an industry you lose the skills). So, in this context, Sam Altman (OpenAI) is supposedly raising money to build chips in the USA. I am super skeptical of this outcome. LINK
Artificial Intelligence
Augmented ME - the title of an essay that I'm writing...
An interesting case point is the significant improvement in decision-making abilities observed among professional Go players.
This change, as illustrated in the accompanying chart, became particularly prominent after the introduction of AlphaGo. However, it's crucial to recognize that this improvement isn't just a result of learning from AI. There's a clear uptick in the creation of innovative strategies by the players themselves.
The future of LLMs in on devices
Achieving the ability to run a Language Model (LLM) on your laptop offline can be accomplished in a mere 10 minutes. Here's the procedure:
Visit http://ollama.ai
Obtain an open-source LLM such as Mistral.
Launch your terminal and input the command Ollama run Mistral. LINK
Apple is working on AI too:
1/ Apple's AI focus. Apple is increasingly focusing on artificial intelligence (AI), demonstrated through acquisitions, staff hiring, and hardware updates, aiming to integrate AI into the next generation of iPhones.
2/ AI start-up acquisitions. Since 2017, Apple has acquired 21 AI start-ups, more than other Big Tech companies, including the recent purchase of WaveOne, a company specializing in AI-powered video compression.
3/ Deep Learning and Generative AI. Nearly half of Apple’s AI job postings now include "Deep Learning", focusing on generative AI models. Apple hired Google's top AI executive, John Giannandrea, in 2018, and is reportedly working on its own large language models (LLMs).
4/ Advancements in AI hardware. Apple has introduced new chips like the M3 Max, S9, and A17 Pro, designed for enhanced AI capabilities. These advancements include running LLMs on-device using Flash memory, allowing faster, offline query processing.
5/ AI integration in products and services. Apple's AI strategy focuses on enhancing its ecosystem, with expectations of introducing generative AI features in iPhones and possibly updating Siri with LLM capabilities in iOS 18. However, Apple maintains a secretive approach compared to its rivals like Microsoft, Google, and Amazon. LINK
CES 2024
Steven Sinofsky has an extended piece on what happened at CES this year, entitled: “Builders, Makers, Risk-Takers”. 95% of the products presented there will either fail or simply not reach the market. However, the remaining 5% will drive the innovation forward.
One message is clear: It’s time to build. LINK
AI is making telepathy real. LINK
The modern AI stack - Design Principles for the Future of Enterprise AI Architectures. LINK
Midjourney is doing $200M ARR. I wonder what are their costs… LINK
Things happen
Is U.S. industrial policy learning from its mistakes? - by Noah Smith. LINK
Welcome to the new era of global sea power.
“China’s navy is now the world’s largest. American shipyards have withered. And European navies are a shadow of their former selves, having shed 28% of their submarines and 32% of frigates and destroyers between 1999 and 2018.” LINK
A fantastic podcast discussing the potential influence of culture on economic development and innovation. This content is at the forefront of contemporary research. LINK
The Techno-Industrial Revolution, by Patrick McCormick. LINK
Data
Government debt to GDP ratio
Legacy media
Trust and views on legacy media are decreasing globally. The internet brought not only the truth but also the fake news.
Many Asian Americans hold a predominantly unfavorable perception of China, and this sentiment is also prevalent among Chinese Americans.
TikTok
Most Americans think TikTok is a national security threat.
Annual returns 1928-2023:
Stocks +9.8%
Bonds +4.6%
Cash +3.3%
Gold +4.9%
Housing +4.2%
Outside interest
Vaccines work
New analysis from Scotland shows no cases of cervical cancer in women vaccinated at 12 years of age. LINK
Pablo Picasso drawing the bull. LINK
A question to ponder upon each Monday and Friday: What did you do this week?
The conflict between two pre-Bronze Age tribes in West Papua in 1963. LINK
Max Verstappen’s training to face 5G forces in F1. LINK
Interesting newsletters 💡
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