(#83) The Automation Roadmap for "White-collar" and "Blue-collar" jobs
How many AI agents do you have?
Strategy
🤖🦾🦿 On job automation
I have decided to approach the automation topic because the threat is real.
So, let’s approach these two topics from a collar perspective:
“White collar” jobs
Before deep-diving, here is a key definition of the AI Agent:
“AI agent is best described as AI-fueled software that does a series of jobs for you that a human customer service agent, HR person or IT help desk employee might have done in the past, although it could ultimately involve any task. You ask it to do things, and it does them for you, sometimes crossing multiple systems and going well beyond simply answering questions.” LINK
In my Newsletter #17, I mentioned an article from Goldman Sachs showing that 300 million jobs will be automated with AI:
Now, is pretty clear how this will happen for “white-collar” jobs, as described by Greg Isenberg:
a) Human leads AI (we are here)
Currently, humans are at the helm, making decisions and performing tasks. Although we utilize tools like Notion or Google Workspace, these are merely aids in our predominantly human-driven workflow. The workload is immense and often overwhelming, but change is on the horizon.
b) AI-assisting by Humans (2025-2027)
In the next few years, AI will become our essential assistant. AI will take on repetitive and time-consuming tasks such as data analysis, scheduling, and routine operations, allowing us to concentrate on strategy, creativity, and high-level decision-making. For instance, specialists will use AI to swiftly and accurately analyze data, offering suggestions while leaving the final judgment to the human expert. This integration will enhance efficiency and effectiveness across various fields, including key sectors: consulting, healthcare, and content creation. The presence of AI in every role will eliminate the need for intermediaries, as imaged by John Rush:
c) AI-Agent deciding while is Human-assisted (2028-2030)
Around 2028, AI agents will be at the forefront, managing complex operations, making real-time decisions, and optimizing processes. Our role will shift to overseeing, guiding, and refining the AI’s outputs. Imagine a project manager using AI agents to coordinate team schedules, allocate resources, and monitor project progress, allowing them to concentrate on strategic planning and team leadership. In healthcare, AI agents could manage patient records, schedule appointments, and monitor patient vitals, enabling doctors and nurses to focus more on patient care and treatment plans. Everyone will benefit from having multiple AI agents working for them, streamlining and enhancing productivity across various domains.
d) Humanoids, AI-Agent Powered (2030 and beyond)
Looking ahead to 2030 and beyond, we will see the rise of humanoid robots. These robots, combining sophisticated software with advanced hardware, will be capable of cooking, cleaning, building, and providing care for the elderly. They will become integral to various environments, from homes and hospitals to restaurants and construction sites. Our responsibility will be to design, supervise, and improve these machines, fostering new business opportunities centered around these humanoid robots.
2. “Blue collar” jobs
Blue-collar workers suffered the most during the automation period that started in the ‘90s because they didn’t have a platform where they could lament. White-collar workers have social media and politicians like to ‘listen’ to popular demands.
So, we are leaving the robotics renaissance led by companies like Optimus from Tesla. Mario Gabriele made a selection of robots available on the market.
These robots not only will do the work in factories but also on the battlefield.
Now, companies need this due to stagnant productivity. Joey Politano has an insightful post that examines productivity stagnation by industry, demonstrating that this trend is consistent across various sectors. Here is the essential graph from his analysis:
Meeting manufacturing demand means buying more robots:
Meeting demographic challenges means using only robots. Here is Xiaomi:
“Xiaomi's self-optimizing autonomous factory will make 10M+ phones a year. There are no humans working the new Xiaomi production lines – this new Smart Factory is 100% automated. Indeed, the company says the system is smart enough to diagnose and fix problems, as well as optimizing its own processes to "evolve by itself." LINK
And here is Japan:
“Japan rolls out plan for 500km conveyor belt to solve looming cargo logistics crisis. The proposed Tokyo-Osaka ‘Autoflow-Road’ transport system could carry the same amount of freight as 25,000 truck drivers every day” LINK
So, what will humans do? That’s for another newsletter.
Artificial Intelligence
AI layoffs at Intuit
1/ Intuit is laying off 1,800 employees, about 10% of its workforce, as part of a strategic corporate reshuffling aimed at advancing its artificial intelligence ambitions. This decision, announced by CEO Sasan Goodarzi, is not a cost-cutting measure but a reallocation of resources to the company's most critical areas, including AI development. The company will rehire approximately 1,800 new employees in engineering, product, and customer-facing roles. Goodarzi emphasized that Intuit is in a strong position and needs to accelerate innovation and investment to maintain its leadership and fulfill its mission of powering customer prosperity. (=AI is better at customer service)
2/ The layoffs will also see a significant raise in performance expectations, resulting in 1,050 employees leaving due to not meeting these heightened standards. Intuit has trimmed its executive headcount by 10%, consolidated technology roles, and eliminated over 300 positions across the company. Despite these cuts, the company plans to grow its overall headcount in the 2025 fiscal year and beyond, focusing on data and AI investments and engineering hires. Intuit aims to develop its generative AI-powered financial assistant, Intuit Assist, and other customer solutions. Following the announcement, Intuit's stock declined by more than 3%. LINK
xAI partnership with Oracle
Elon Musk's AI company, xAI, has ended discussions with Oracle regarding an expanded agreement to rent Nvidia chips, as xAI focuses on building what Musk claims will be "the most powerful training cluster in the world." This decision, confirmed by Musk on social media, highlights xAI's aggressive strategy to outpace competitors by constructing a supercomputer equipped with 100,000 Nvidia GPUs. This move is significant as it underscores xAI's ambition to dominate the generative AI field, directly challenging established players. The termination of talks with Oracle, which had been providing 24,000 Nvidia chips to xAI, caused Oracle's shares to drop by 3%.
The making of Eno, the first generative feature film. LINK
13 HR jobs of the future, from Jeanne Meister. LINK
Things Happen
Politics and business go hand in hand, so here is the news:
JD Vance is the Vice-president proposal from Donald Trump. He’s pro-innovation, pro-business, pro little tech. Nomination, Pro innovation, Little Tech
on advanced manufacturing tech
ON, an athletic shoe and performance sportswear company originating in Switzerland, has launched a new sneaker that uses spray-on plastic to build a shoe in 6 minutes. LINK
Robot-packed meals are coming to a store near you. LINK
No one wants a meatless burger and McDonald’s should understand this too. LINK
Instagram is sticking to short videos, says Adam Mosseri. LINK
Butter made from CO2. LINK
Why China is sending its own police to Hungary. LINK
Data
Delta Air Lines is loosing $100m because no one wants to visit Paris when the summer Olympics are held. LINK
BET vs. Nasdaq
📈 Holger Zschaepitz (from Bloomberg) shared on X (Twitter) a benchmark performance between the Romanian stock market index BET and Nasdaq 100. His conclusion: BET has outperformed the Nasdaq 100 over the past 5 years.
🤓 More about this in his weekly podcast "Alles Auf Aktien". LINK
State of the Consumer 2024, by McKinsey.
First conclusion: Younger consumers in emerging markets are on average 2x more optimistic than those from advanced economies. LINK
Outside interest
Unbusy - a poem. LINK
Yes, I think often of the Roman Empire.
Bulgarian archaeologists have discovered a seven-foot marble statue of the Greek god Hermes in an ancient Roman sewer. It is believed that the inhabitants of the ancient city of Heraclea Sintica buried the statue after the Roman Empire embraced Christianity. LINK
The German Army still uses floppy disks because they consider them more reliable. LINK
Team stats at the EURO 2024. LINK
Philipp Lahm’s letter in The Guardian: “Romania captured the magic of Euro 2024: now we must follow their lead”. Lahm was the Managing Director DFB-EURO GmbH & Tournament Director UEFA EURO 2024. LINK
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