Newsletter #3
Check-out the latest updates on strategy, tech and business models.
Although it’s Christmas a lot is happening, as can be seen below. Next week’s newsletter will include some personal predictions from myself and others.
My work
Gen Z (born between ‘95 and ‘10) are living in a “permacris”. But how they engage at work is the most important aspects for me and many managers around the world. I hope you’ll enjoy it! LINK
Strategy
What causes inflation? Well, supply shocks, money shocks and expectations & spirals. The FED doesn’t see inflation coming back below the 2% until 2025. Morgan Stanley’s economists forecast that global inflation will peak in the fourth quarter of 2022. The era of cheap money is over. Be profitable ASAP or die trying! INFLATION, FED, Morgan Stanley
Tesla shares are plunging (70% YTD). There are multiple explanations for this, but the drop is mainly explained from slowing demand due to competition and macroeconomic conditions. Nobody knows how to price the shares because nobody really knows if Tesla it’s an automotive company, a space exploration company, a solar panel company or all the aforementioned. Where should we draw the line for an automotive company? Well, around 10x EBITDA and 2x on revenue. Meanwhile, the company has decreased production. SHARES, PRODUCTION
Meanwhile, Tesla’s cars don’t charge at -7C (+19F). Short reminder: the range is for California’s weather, which is around + 20 C. LINK
Preventing job layoffs will be a top priority for the Chinese government in 2023. In the meantime, Xiaomi (aka “the Apple of China”) has fired around 1,000 employees, while Alibaba slashed its workforce by 15,000 in 2022, while Tencent more than 4,000. LINK
The most important decision taken by the Chinese government was to remove most of the “zero covid” policies. First results? Close to 250 million people are estimated to be infected in less than a month. China has 4x more proper hospital beds than the US, although it has a 5x population, as accurately described by Bill Bishop on Sharp China. ZERO COVID, INFECTIONS
Netflix oversold the expected viewership numbers for the ads plan. They only hit around 80% and now are letting the advertisers take their money back. My impression is that only one plan with ads priced at $6.99 and additional ones will follow, including all over the world. LINK
When is the FTX movie going to be seen on Netflix or in theatres? Probably, very soon. Two of the FTX’s collaborators, Caroline Ellison - CEO @ Alameda Research and Gary Wang - CTO @ FTX, have pleaded guilty and are collaborating with the SEC. This week we found out that SBF (Sam Bankman-Fried) borrowed money from Alameda Research to buy Robinhood Shares. SEC, ROBIN HOOD
The dirty road to clean energy. The EV boom is damaging the environment, especially in 3rd world countries. LINK
Neobanks continue to innovate both on products and customer relationships. Now with the near end of cheap money some of these players might want to consider another (ignored) KPI: profitability. LINK
The gaming industry is having an overall good year. Downloads for mobile games are up double digits in five of the six major mobile gaming markets (across both iOS and Android). LINK
DATA
Accenture’s Fjord trends report for 2023. Here are the first two:
Trend 1: The world’s in a “permacrisis,” but we’ll adapt.
Trend 2: Building a community will be essential to growing a customer base. LINK
Coinbase’s crypto report for 2023. LINK
“The metaverse is basically the next iteration of the internet, and it is through XR technologies, augmented reality, virtual reality and mixed reality, that we’ll have a gateway to this new internet”. Mads Troelsgaard CEO, SynergyXR
Shaping the metaverse towards sustainability (report by KPMG). LINK
PwC 2023 Metaverse Predictions. LINK
Top 50 Artificial Intelligence companies, by Forbes. LINK
The 2022 McKinsey Global Payments Report. LINK
Digital Switzerland Strategy 2023. LINK
The Big Tech in Healthcare Report. A $1 trillion market is now the main target to Apple, Amazon, Google & Microsoft. LINK
OUTSIDE INTEREST
Russian banks don't have cash to satisfy withdrawals and pension payments. LINK
Short afternoon naps at the workplace improved an overall productivity, psychological well-being, and cognition. LINK
How to write good email subject lines. LINK
Wearing noise cancelling headphones in an open-plan office reduces cognitive errors by 14%, but total silence reduces those errors by one third. LINK
The notion of a personal ‘Carbon Footprint’ was invented by Ogilvy & Mather for BP in the early 2000s. LINK